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Iraq: Latest return survey shows few intending to go home soon

Briefing Notes, 29 April 2008

This is a summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Jennifer Pagonis – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at the press briefing, on 29 April 2008, at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.

A UNHCR-commissioned survey of nearly 1,000 Iraqis currently staying in Syria has shown that 95 percent had fled their homeland because of direct threats or general insecurity and that only 4 percent currently had plans to return to Iraq.

The latest Assessment on Returns to Iraq was carried out for UNHCR by the IPSOS market research agency in Syria between 2-18 March. A total of 994 interviews were undertaken in Damascus at UNHCR's registration and food distribution sites, in community centres or during home visits.

A total of 86 percent of the respondents were registered with UNHCR, while 14 percent had not yet been registered. A total of 95 percent stated that they had fled Iraq in recent years, either due to direct threats (65 percent) or general insecurity (30 percent). Some 2 percent of the interviewed Iraqis had left Iraq before 2003; 44 percent between 2003 and 2006; and 54 percent after 2006. A total of 94 percent had a valid residency permit in Syria.

The survey revealed that of all those interviewed, only 39 out of 994 people – or 4 percent – are planning to return to Iraq. Of the 39 people, 31 percent plan to return within the next 12 months and the remainder have not set a date. A total of 89.5 percent (890 out of 994) are not planning to return to Iraq, while 6.5 percent (65 out of 994) do not know if they are returning to Iraq.

The survey demonstrated not only the highly mobile nature of this population, with 34 percent having visited Iraq once or twice in the last year, but also that Iraqis are in touch with their home areas and people who have returned voluntarily. Of the 27 percent who report knowing people who have already returned to Iraq, 62 percent are still in contact. Of those Iraqis who knew people who had returned, 77 percent provided feedback that stated that the conditions at home were not satisfactory for a variety of reasons.

The following reasons were given by those not wishing to return: 61 percent stated they are under direct threat in Iraq; 29 percent do not want to return because of the general insecurity in Iraq; 8 percent responded that their home in Iraq had been destroyed or is presently occupied by others; 1 percent said they had no job in Iraq; and 1 percent said they had no more relatives left at home.

A similar survey has been done in Jordan, where 400 Iraqis were interviewed during the first three weeks of March. The results of that survey are still being analysed.

A total of 4.7 million Iraqis have been uprooted as a result of the crisis in Iraq. Of these, over 2 million are living as refugees in neighbouring countries – mostly Syria and Jordan – while 2.7 million are internally displaced inside Iraq. UNHCR remains committed to identifying obstacles to a safe and dignified return to Iraq and to working with the Iraqi government on measures aimed at addressing these obstacles to ensure that a voluntary return will someday be possible.

In January, UNHCR appealed for $261 million for our work on behalf of Iraqi refugees outside their country as well as for the internally displaced. So far, we have received just under half of that amount, which is not enough to keep our programmes going during the second half of 2008. Iraq programme donors as of 22 April include the United States ($95.4 million); Canada ($1.5 million); United Kingdom ($6.2 million); Germany ($3.9 million); Sweden ($2.3 million); Finland ($1.5 million); European Commission ($6.3 million); Kuwait ($1 million); France ($740,000); Switzerland ($702,000); Italy ($292,000); private donors ($109,000).

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