It was one of those troubling paradoxes which so characterizes the Balkans. Even as ethnic Albanian and Macedonian leaders prepared to sign a comprehensive peace settlement in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) recently, six months of clashes between the two sides continued near the capital, Skopje.

The ceremony, so symbolically full of hope, was still so fraught with tension, the timing and venue of the ceremony were kept secret until the last minute.

The situation in FYROM was the latest regional flashpoint, but even in countries where the guns have fallen silent the situation for refugees and other displaced persons remains full of contradiction.

As many as 1.8 million people have gone back to their countries and homes in the last few years. The expulsion and return in 1999 of virtually the entire ethnic Albanian population of Kosovo was one of the fastest reversals of fortune in refugee history. Encouragingly, the number of people in Bosnia-Herzegovina going back to sensitive areas where they will be minorities accelerated in the last two years. Even Serbia, for so long regarded as an instigator of ethnic cleansing, for the first time welcomed back groups of minority ethnic Albanians who had fled during the turmoil.

Democratic governments have replaced authoritarian regimes in Croatia and Yugoslavia.

The extradition of Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague raised hope that other suspected war criminals may soon be apprehended.

But less encouraging news is never far away. An estimated 1.3 million people are still waiting to go home and it may be more difficult to successfully help them than in the past. An estimated 230,000 ethnic Serbs, Roma and other minorities who fled Kosovo in a 'second exodus' as the Albanians returned, are increasingly frustrated with their life in limbo. Yugoslavia continues to host 390,000 refugees from earlier conflicts.

Humanitarian and development dollars are in increasingly short supply, though there is a continuing need for the reconstruction of homes and infrastructure.

Corruption, ethnic hatred are widespread in some areas.

One day in Bosnia, a 16-year-old girl can be ruthlessly gunned down, jeopardizing months or years of patient ethnic bridge building. On another day and on a more promising note in Kosovo, a project is launched to rebuild 50 houses for Serb returnees.

In the Balkans, the question can continue to be debated: Is the glass half full or half empty?

Source: Refugees Magazine Issue 124: "The Balkans: What Next?" (October 2001). Download the complete issue (pdf, 2.2Mb) here