By Alessandro Nava, Economist, South Sudan, UNHCR and Jedediah Fix, Senior Economist, Regional Bureau for East and Horn of Africa & the Great Lakes
The arrival – or return – of large numbers of forcibly displaced persons can strain already overstretched services in host communities. Sustainable responses to forced displacement require new ways to anticipate and address these pressures.
In South Sudan, for example, return areas struggle to serve both host communities and returnees: schools are overcrowded and understaffed, health facilities are understocked, and clean water remains scarce. Without early investment, these strains on services risk undermining community stability and longer-term reintegration, especially as responses shift toward integrated settlements – where local authorities lead service delivery for both host and displaced communities – and where returns are occurring rapidly.
A methodology that uses national and international standards to identify services gaps and anticipate demand
To support reintegration in South Sudan, a recent collaboration between UNHCR, the consultancy Samuel Hall, and national authorities developed a methodology and tools to measure services – health, education and law enforcement – and infrastructure like water and markets in areas experiencing high levels of displacement and return, including communities affected by the war in Sudan. Grounded in national and international standards, the tools help to measure not just the presence of services, but their quality, helping to anticipate needs and identify investment opportunities to support area-based responses.
The methodology and its tools help answer two questions:
- What are the quality and coverage gaps in services and infrastructure for the current local population, including the displaced persons already living there?
- To what extent can existing infrastructure meet the expected demand from returnees and newly displaced populations in the future?
By applying standardized service capacity thresholds – based on national benchmarks and Sphere standards (a set of humanitarian principles and standards) – the model evaluates whether schools, clinics, and water points are already over capacity or can absorb additional people, or are critically strained. Each facility receives a score based on several indicators, which are combined with local and national standards. For example, for water, 15 litres of water per person per day is considered adequate, 4.5 litres is enough for survival and basic hygiene, and 2.5 litres is the minimum for survival. This generates an estimate of the absorption capacity for the local population.
This absorption capacity model allows for a far more nuanced picture of what reintegration means in practice, and what needs to change to make it work.
For example, the study on Northern Bahr el Ghazal shows that the water infrastructure is at near-maximum capacity, with systems already struggling to meet current survival-level needs (2.5 litres per person per day), as demonstrated by the figure below.
This approach also points to solutions: while rehabilitating 25 non-functional water points could alleviate some pressure, it’s not enough to close the gap, and it will be necessary to expand the network of water points. The same approach can be applied to health, education, and other sectors.
Overall, findings from 3,200 household surveys and the evaluation of over 1,100 infrastructure points reveal significant gaps in essential services: healthcare facilities running beyond capacity, medicine shortages, overcrowded schools, just one teacher for every 140 students, and limited access to safe water. Housing challenges such as land disputes and makeshift shelters compound the challenge.
Despite these challenges, returnees and host communities alike express a strong commitment to staying, underscoring the urgent need for sustained investments to support their long-term stability and development.
“Over the past two years, South Sudanese communities have shown remarkable generosity welcoming people fleeing Sudan into their homes. However, both host communities and refugees are facing growing pressure, including economic hardship, climate shocks, conflict and severe cuts in humanitarian services. A response focused on recovery and transition supports sustainable integration and lays the foundations for lasting peace,” said Ms. Marie-Helene Verney, UNHCR’s Representative in South Sudan.
While needs remain vast and widespread, this methodology provides a granular understanding of service pressures at the local level. It reveals that areas such as Gomjuer East still have the capacity to absorb additional returnees, while others – like Malual North and Nyalath – are already operating beyond their limits. Crucially, this evidence base helps development actors and partners plan better, whether through targeted solutions, by rehabilitating existing facilities, mobilising community-based teacher recruitment, or helping local water committees restore boreholes.
Clear and objective tools like this offer new opportunities for humanitarian and development actors to support local governments and their populations
Together, approaches such as these help to paint a picture of the state of integration in areas with high levels of displacement as well as the need for services among host communities and displacement populations alike. In turn, this helps to identify areas where international partners can practically and effectively support local governments to mitigate the challenges of displacement and foster a basis for improving socioeconomic and development opportunities.
“I intend to stay here. I will live my life as a refugee in Wedweil camp,” says 58-year-old Maley, a refugee from Sudan who arrived in South Sudan earlier this year. He envisions a future where investments in self-reliance initiatives transform Wedweil into a thriving community. Agricultural projects, vocational training, and small business support could empower refugees and provide them with opportunities to rebuild their lives. “If the services are improved, this can become an area of good development and services for both refugees and the host community”.
As displacement continues to evolve across South Sudan and the region, this methodology offers a scalable model for action. It puts evidence at the center of reintegration planning by combining service quality benchmarks, service capacity benchmarks, and arrivals numbers. This supports targeted solutions and provides a practical and sustainable way to help services grow in line with community needs, and ensure that return is a viable and lasting choice.
Explore the full methodology and findings of the assessment here.