{"id":35503,"date":"2021-10-27T23:06:48","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T21:06:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.unhcr.org\/innovation\/?p=35503"},"modified":"2022-07-04T14:27:34","modified_gmt":"2022-07-04T12:27:34","slug":"epidemic-simulation-modelling-of-covid-19-in-refugee-settlements","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.unhcr.org\/innovation\/epidemic-simulation-modelling-of-covid-19-in-refugee-settlements\/","title":{"rendered":"Epidemic Simulation Modelling of COVID-19 in refugee settlements"},"content":{"rendered":"\n[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.14.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||50px||false|false&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;4.14.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.14.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_code _builder_version=&#8221;4.14.2&#8243; _module_preset=&#8221;default&#8221; hover_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243; sticky_enabled=&#8221;0&#8243;]<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/K8Vhl194ikA\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>[\/et_pb_code][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22.7&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||0px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||32px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]With a total population of more than 884,000, Cox\u2019s Bazar settlement density is similar to New York City, therefore COVID-19 spread is a greater risk. Contrary to many SIR (severity-infected-recovery) models, this project &#8211; which is based on an agent-based model originally deployed in the UK &#8211; uses available georeferenced data to construct a \u201cdigital twin\u201d of Kutupalong settlement. The project, led by UN Global Pulse and with support of the Innovation Service, consists of building a digital twin that includes information on geo-locations of key population movement mixing points such as: households, food distribution centers, water pumps\/handwashing stations and schools, and the demographic data of over 700 000 inhabitants. The simulation probabilistically determines what agents (refugees) do during the day. Therefore, disease spread and symptom progression are based on demographic characteristics and the inclusion of comorbidities when calculating the likelihood of severe disease progression.[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22.7&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;1px||0px|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row column_structure=&#8221;1_3,1_3,1_3&#8243; make_equal=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; background_color=&#8221;#f4f4f4&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|32px||32px||true&#8221; border_radii=&#8221;on|8px|8px|8px|8px&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_text module_class=&#8221;grey&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<h2>Humanitarian challenge<\/h2>\nUnderstand population movement to avoid the spread of COVID-19 in refugee settlements[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<h2>Challenge Question<\/h2>\n<em>How can UNHCR know the number of people that could potentially be infected with COVID-19 and know which interventions are the most effective measures to reduce the spread of the disease in a refugee camp?<\/em>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.27.4&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<h2>Data innovation solution<\/h2>\nComputer simulation (Agent-Based Model, ABM)[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22.7&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;0px|||||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_row _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;30px|||||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.25&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221;][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Papers and Citations&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22.7&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2021.01.27.21250611v1\">Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements<\/a>[\/et_pb_toggle][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Blogs&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22.7&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unglobalpulse.org\/microsite\/epidemic-modelling-in-settlements\/\">Epidemic Modelling of COVID-19<\/a>\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/epimodel.unglobalpulse.net\/\">Using computer simulations in refugee settlements<\/a>[\/et_pb_toggle][et_pb_toggle title=&#8221;Code\/data repo&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.22.7&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221;]<a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/UNGlobalPulse\/UNGP-settlement-modelling#operational-response-simulation-tool-for-epidemics-within-refugee-and-idp-settlements\">Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements<\/a>[\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The simulation probabilistically determines what agents (refugees) do during the day. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[749],"tags":[755,753,751],"class_list":["post-35503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-innovation-project","tag-dolor","tag-ipsum","tag-lorem"],"acf":{"author":"","authors_title":"","project":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - 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