Early warning and risks to information integrity

Risks to information integrity can lead to severe and immediate offline consequences for forcibly displaced and stateless populations and humanitarian organizations. While it is not yet established that online information risks constitute reliable indicators of early warning of displacement, scholars have linked them to atrocity crimes. 

It’s equally crucial to acknowledge that even seemingly lower-level instances of information risks likely can cause significant damage over extended periods. Even lower-level hate speech, through years of demonizing and dehumanizing language, can create conditions conducive to genocide and other related crimes. As people come to accept a moderately dangerous message, they also become a bit more likely to accept an even more dangerous one. In this way, normal social barriers to violence erode as increasingly dangerous speech begins to saturate the social environment.

Similarly, disinformation—a steady stream of conspiratorial narratives can severely erode trust in institutions and sew social and political polarization. Hate speech and disinformation both have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only individuals but also the fabric of societal trust and the stability of democratic institutions. While hate speech can escalate into violence and reinforce discrimination, disinformation can spread rapidly through social media, exacerbating divisions and posing direct threats to civilians. 

In line with these considerations, UNHCR colleagues should engage in the following activities:

• Assessing and mapping preferred and trusted channels.
• Identifying key stakeholders (including those already engaged in monitoring activities.
• Establishing avenues for escalation (where and when and frequency).
• Mobilising partners and resources.
• Developing an early warning to plan on prioritization of activities and resources.