Risk analysis

Due to the potentially life-threatening and sensitive nature of risks to information integrity, an emphasis should be placed on conducting risk analyses throughout the response frameworks. Risk considerations should be integral at every stage, ensuring that activities are executed with a strong awareness of current and potential challenges and threats.

This includes first and foremost, understanding the protection risks of forcibly displaced and stateless populations in a given context and extends to the careful selection of partnerships, strategic planning for monitoring activities, meticulous organization of workshops, and tailored messaging around the project.

Risk Factors

Pilot and partner analysis and activities have identified a number of factors and inflection points which may create an enabling enviornment for information risks and/or lead to acute instances. The below list is not comprehensive and should be adjusted based on context but seeks to provide an overview of risk factors which can contribute to information risks resulting in harm to forcibly displaced and stateless population, the reputation of UNHCR and humanitarian organisations, and/or humanitarian staff.

Upcoming inflection points such as: elections, anticipated or unexpected movement of people, episodes of violence, outbreak of conflict, riots and protests, rapid expansion of internet penetration/social media adaptation, internet and telecommunications shutdowns, rapid transitions in government, and moments of social and/or political instability.
History of intercommunal, ethnic, and/or religious tensions
Presence of social and/or political in-group/out-group dynamics
History of conflict, violence, and/or political violence
History of failed international and/or humanitarian interventions
Economic instability
Significant reliance on social media for information and/or rapid influx of social media usage
Low digital literacy with high digital use
Non-pluralistic media landscape

Red-flag Considerations for Determining High-Risk

Multiple incidents of the same information risk in a week (pattern of high engaging or highly shared incidents from different sources, across different platforms and languages).
Number of incidents of a information risks increasing week to week, increasing in engagement/shares over time.
Evidence of same information risks in different unrelated communities (breaking outside each echo chamber).
Same narratives repeating but with escalating rhetoric, becoming increasingly violent/aggressive.