Refugees from Ukraine contributed an estimated 2.4 per cent to Poland’s GDP in 2025, according to new Deloitte analysis for UNHCR

More than four years after the start of the full-scale invasion, the employment rate among refugees from Ukraine has been steadily increasing, and their economic participation is having a positive impact on the economy. In 2025, Ukrainian refugees generated an estimated 2.4 per cent of Poland’s GDP, equivalent to approximately PLN 94 billion (USD 24.4 billion), according to the third edition of the report “Analysis of the Impact of Refugees from Ukraine on the Polish Economy” prepared by Deloitte at the request of the UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.

The data shows that the employment rate among refugees from Ukraine in Poland increased by 7 percentage points compared with the previous year, reaching 76 per cent, a level comparable to the employment rate among Polish citizens. At the same time, there is no evidence that the increase in labor force participation has adversely affected employment outcomes for Polish workers. The findings show that refugees are increasingly supporting themselves through work. In 2025, employment accounted for 87 per cent of refugee household income, while the median net salary increased by 45 per cent between 2023 and 2025. In 2025, Polish social benefits accounted for only 10 per cent of their income, while benefits from Ukraine accounted for 2 per cent.

A noticeable impact on the economy

A larger number of employed people translates into a greater labor supply, higher consumption, and additional tax and social security contributions. As a result, according to Deloitte’s findings, refugees from Ukraine contributed an estimated 2.4 percent to Poland’s GDP in 2025, equivalent to approximately PLN 94 billion (USD 24.4 billion).

“The economic inclusion of refugees can create benefits for both refugees and host communities. Refugees become less reliant on humanitarian assistance and instead become consumers and taxpayers, while strengthening their own self-reliance. The ability to support themselves through their own work is the foundation of independence for people who have been forced to flee Ukraine. Creating favorable conditions for their professional development, recognizing their qualifications, and providing access to career paths aligned with their education and skills enables them to make better use of their knowledge, skills and potential and to have an increasingly positive impact on the economy,” says Jun Shirato, Acting Representative of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Poland.

Refugees are present in the labour market not only as employees but also as entrepreneurs. Approximately 13 percent of working-age people report being self-employed, and one in five of them employ other workers.

“The Polish labor market has adapted well to the increased supply of labor from Ukrainian refugees. Companies are adapting through greater specialization and changes in their organizational structures. New employees often complement existing company resources rather than directly competing with domestic workers. This mechanism supports productivity growth and expands companies’ opportunities for development. Further potential lies in making better use of refugees’ qualifications and professional experience,” says Dr. Aleksander Łaszek, Senior Manager and Leader of the Economic Analysis Team at Deloitte.

Untapped potential among refugees

One of the main challenges remains the mismatch between refugees' qualifications and the occupations in which they are employed. Some 62% of working-age refugees have higher education, yet only 29% of those employed work in managerial, professional, or technical occupations.

Among Ukrainian citizens holding a PESEL UKR number, 38% work in elementary occupations, compared with 9% among Polish citizens. One of the barriers is access to regulated professions. According to incomplete ZUS data, around 4% of people with PESEL UKR numbers work in such professions, compared with 12% of Polish citizens.

Refugees in the healthcare system

As labor force participation increases, the way refugees use public institutions is also changing. Healthcare is a good example. Rising employment means that a larger share of refugees access the system as insured individuals and contribute to its financing through social insurance contributions. In 2025, health insurance contributions paid to the National Health Fund (NFZ) by refugees exceeded the cost of healthcare services financed for them by PLN 50 million. At the same time, the growing number of doctors and other healthcare professionals from Ukraine helped alleviate staff shortages in the sector.

The full report is available here: Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland