Ahead of COP31, UNHCR warns nearly 90 million displaced people face severe climate risks

GENEVA – UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is calling for urgent action to protect millions of refugees and other forcibly displaced people increasingly exposed to devastating climate impacts, warning ahead of UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, that climate finance is failing to reach many of the communities most at risk.

According to UNHCR's latest report, nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people – three in four globally – are living in countries facing high to extreme exposure to climate-related hazards, including severe droughts, deadly floods and extreme heat. Many have already fled conflict, violence and persecution, only to find themselves facing another crisis in places where resources and opportunities to adapt are severely limited.

At the heart of the report are the voices of eight representatives from displaced communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis, bringing a powerful human perspective on how climate change impacts displacement. They highlight the resilience and solutions of displaced communities and the importance of including their voices in climate decisions that shape their futures.

“Refugees face a double injustice. Forced to flee conflicts they did not cause, they are now on the frontlines of a climate crisis they have contributed least to,” said Antón Leis García, UNHCR's Assistant High Commissioner for Operations. “For millions, climate change is not a distant threat. It is destroying shelters, undermining livelihoods and putting their hopes of rebuilding their lives at risk. We cannot allow those who have already lost so much to be left behind in global climate action.”

Climate change is also increasingly threatening the prospect of lasting solutions for displaced people. More than two in three refugees who returned home during the first half of 2026 went back to countries highly vulnerable to climate hazards, raising concerns over the sustainability of their returns. In Syria, where nearly 4 million displaced people have recently returned, declining groundwater and severe climate shocks are threatening recovery. Flooding along the Euphrates River in May 2026 damaged homes and displaced thousands of people once again.

Extreme heat is another growing threat. By 2050, one in three refugee settlements across sub-Saharan Africa could face at least 100 days of dangerous heat each year. More than half of all locations assessed could experience at least 50 additional days of dangerous heat annually. In some settlements in Ethiopia, including Helaweyn, dangerous heat could persist for more than 200 days a year, posing growing risks to displaced people's health, livelihoods and ability to remain in places where they have sought safety.

Meanwhile, weather-related disasters have triggered more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide over the past decade – equivalent to some 70,000 daily. In East Africa, forecasts indicate that severe flooding associated with a very strong El Niño could displace up to 3 million people across Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of 2026, depending on the severity of the floods. The region has already experienced devastating floods, with more than 2 million people displaced in 2023, including families forced to flee multiple times.

Climate change is also increasing the risk of statelessness, with nearly 90 per cent of the world’s 4.7 million reported stateless people living in countries facing high to extreme climate hazards. Without legal recognition, many struggle to access disaster relief and support to adapt, leaving them particularly vulnerable.

Despite these risks, climate finance continues to fall short in reaching those most in need. Fragile and conflict-affected countries receive only around 10 per cent of global climate finance, even though many host large populations of refugees and displaced people and face severe climate impacts. Greater investment in climate adaptation, including in areas of return, is also critical to supporting reintegration and creating the conditions for safe, voluntary and sustainable returns.

“Climate adaptation in fragile and displacement-affected areas is a matter of survival,” Leis García said. “We need climate financing to reach the communities where the needs are greatest. Investing in resilience, livelihoods and sustainable solutions today can help prevent further displacement tomorrow. Refugees and their host communities must be part of these investments, not an afterthought.”

Refugees and host communities are already leading innovative responses to climate challenges, including solar-powered water systems in the Sahel, climate-resilient agriculture in Uganda, and land and mangrove restoration in Colombia. UNHCR is working with governments, development partners and the private sector to support and expand such initiatives, helping communities adapt while strengthening their self-reliance.

At COP31, UNHCR will call on governments and climate finance institutions to include refugees and displaced people in national climate plans and financing mechanisms, direct greater long-term adaptation investment towards fragile and displacement-affected areas, and move beyond short-term humanitarian assistance towards more sustainable, locally-led solutions.

As Türkiye, one of the world's largest refugee-hosting countries, hosts COP31, the conference offers an important opportunity to place displacement and the needs of host communities firmly within global climate action.

“Refugees are on the frontlines of the climate crisis, but they are also part of the solution,” Leis García said. “COP31 must be a turning point, recognising their leadership and translating bold commitments into concrete investments that reach those most at risk. The decisions taken here must deliver lasting protection, stronger resilience and a safer future for millions of people forced to flee.”

Notes to editors

Media interview: Antón Leis García, UNHCR’s Assistant High Commissioner for Operations, and Andrew Harper, UNHCR’s Special Advisor on Climate Action, will attend COP31 and be available for media interviews.

Key figures on climate change and forced displacement:

• Nearly 90 million people: By mid-2026, three in four forcibly displaced people worldwide were living in countries facing high to extreme exposure to climate-related hazards, including floods, droughts and extreme heat.
• More than two in three refugee returnees: During the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugees who returned home went back to countries highly vulnerable to climate hazards, threatening the sustainability of their return.
• Nearly 200 days of dangerous heat: By 2050, some of the hottest refugee camps, including those in Gambia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal and Mali, are projected to experience nearly 200 days or more of hazardous heat stress annually, approximately double their current average.
• 255 million displacements: Weather-related disasters triggered more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide over the past decade, equivalent to approximately 70,000 movements every day.
• Up to 3 million people could be displaced due to El Niño: Severe flooding associated with a very strong El Niño could displace between 770,000 and three million people in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of 2026, depending on how conditions develop.
• Only around 10 per cent: Fragile and conflict-affected countries receive around 10 per cent of global climate finance, despite hosting many of the people most vulnerable to climate change.

For more information, please contact:

• In Geneva, Eujin Byun, [email protected], +41 79 747 87 19