Overall Programme and Funding Projections for 1994 and 1995

EC/1995/SC.2/CRP.6

I. INTRODUCTION

1. An update of UNHCR programme expenditure and funding projections for 1994 and 1995 was presented to the forty-fifth session of the Executive Committee (EC/1994/SC.2/CRP.25). The present document provides further updated information on programme expenditure and funding projections for 1994 (Part II), a proposed increase in the 1995 General Programmes target (Part III), as well as a summary of programme and funding projections for 1995 (Part IV).

II. UPDATE OF 1994 PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS

2. Annex I provides an update, as of 15 December 1994, of tentative estimates for total projected expenditure for activities programmed in 1994 and a forecast of expected income for the year.

3. At the present time, it is anticipated that General Programmes expenditure for 1994 is likely to total some $ 395.0 million, which would be $ 23.5 million less than the approved target of $ 418.5 million. This is because it is expected that it will not be necessary to have full recourse to the General Allocation for Voluntary Repatriation and to the Emergency Fund. In addition, the overall rate of obligation for programmed activities is expected to fall short of full implementation by some 1.5 per cent. In summary, the situation for 1994 is tentatively projected as follows:

(in millions of US$)

(a) Estimated total expenditure for 1994 395.0

(b) Estimated income for 1994

(i) funds brought forward from 1993 55.4

(ii) contributions in 1994

• already realized as at 15 December 323.5

• expected before year end 7.1

(iii) secondary income 54.0

Total funds available for 1994 440.0

(c) Estimated carry-over into 1995 of unobligated funds 45.0

4. Allocations totalling $ 31.6 million have been made to date from the 1994 Programme Reserve. Details of these allocations are provided in Annex II, which also shows the remaining balance available at 15 December 1994 of $ 2.3 million. It is expected that the balance of these funds will be needed to cover, inter alia, increased expenditure at Headquarters for Programme Delivery (PD) and Administrative Support (AS) costs due to the fall in the value of the US dollar and the creation of a number of posts on account of new or expanded activities in the Field.

5. As concerns the General Allocation for Voluntary Repatriation, total allocations made up to 15 December 1994 amounted to $ 13.8 million, leaving a balance of $ 6.2 million as shown in Annex III.

6. Annex IV shows allocations of $ 15.6 million made to date from the Emergency Fund during 1994, with an unallocated balance of $ 9.4 million remaining at 15 December 1994.

7. In regard to 1994 Special Programmes (as shown in Annex I), $ 719 million had been obligated by 15 December 1994. Some 33 per cent of these pertain to UNHCR's participation in the Programme of Humanitarian Assistance in the former Yugoslavia and some 32.4 per cent concern the Burundi/Rwanda Emergency. It is anticipated at this point that some $ 125.5 million in unobligated funds for those Special Programmes shown in Annex VIII are likely to be carried forward to continue these programmes in 1995.

III. PROPOSED 1995 REVISED GENERAL PROGRAMMES TARGET

8. The Executive Committee of the High Commissioner's Programme, at its forty-fifth session, approved a budgetary target of $ 415.4 million for General Programmes for 1995. This estimate included $ 33.7 million as a Programme Reserve, $ 20.0 million for the General Allocation for Voluntary Repatriation and $ 25.0 million for the Emergency Fund.

9. In line with Executive Committee decision 24(d) and conclusion 29(u) contained in document A/AC.96/839, a comprehensive review has been undertaken of the 1995 activities programmed under General Programmes. This review exercise was completed in early December 1994, and a number of additional requirements were identified. Annex V provides information on the major increases and decreases that can be met through transfers between appropriations and from allocations from the 1995 Programme Reserve, thereby leaving a balance of $ 14 million under the Programme Reserve to meet any other unforeseen needs that may arise during 1995.

10. Annex VI provides details of changes amounting to $ 13,319,500, which cannot be accommodated within the existing 1995 General Programmes target and thus necessitate the increase of the target to $ 428.7 million. Full details will, as usual, be provided in the documentation to be submitted to the forty-sixth session of the Executive Committee.

11. Annex VII provides a summary by region of the revised 1995 General Programmes target of $ 428.7 million which is proposed for review and consideration by the Sub-Committee. If endorsed by the Sub-Committee, it is proposed that this revised target be recommended to the Executive Committee for approval.

IV. SUMMARY OF OVERALL PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS FOR 1995

12. As shown in Annex VIII, the total 1995 projected needs based on currently known or anticipated requirements amount to $ 1,272.5 million. Of this amount, $ 428.7 million concern General Programmes (proposed revised target), while $ 843.8 million pertain to Special Programmes. The latter include tentative projected needs for repatriation programmes planned in 1995, as well as an amount of $ 190.8 million budgeted for the Programme of Humanitarian Assistance in the Former Yugoslavia and $ 279.5 million for the ongoing Burundi/Rwanda Emergency. The major changes in the Special Programmes, as compared to the estimates provided to the forty-fifth session of the Executive Committee (Table X of document A/AC.96/824 refers), are the following:

Afghanistan: 1994 funding requirements were reduced from originally estimated needs due to conditions in the country of origin and a lower than anticipated level of repatriation. However, in light of conclusion 32(d) in document A/AC.96/839 in which the Executive Committee has requested UNHCR to intensify its activities in the safe areas of Afghanistan, an expanded programme has been planned accordingly for 1995;

Angola: during 1994, continued military activity and limited access to the beneficiaries hindered implementation of the programme and assistance was provided to the returnee population only in certain accessible locations. The 1995 estimated requirements have consequently also been reduced. However, needs will be reassessed in April/May 1995 in conjunction with the preparation of a Repatriation Operations Plan in view of recent developments;

Burundi/Rwanda Emergency: total estimated requirements covering the whole of 1995 are now projected at $ 279.5 million, based on caseloads as at the beginning of December 1994. If repatriation should prove possible during 1995, these estimates will of course be adjusted;

Central Asian Republics: due to low levels of funding during 1994 against estimated requirements, some outstanding needs, particularly under the shelter sector, have been added to the 1995 programme. The revised 1995 budgetary requirements have been increased due to this, as well as to expanded re-integration and legal assistance activities, both of which are planned to be handed over to UNDP and human rights groups in mid-1995;

Georgia: estimated 1995 requirements have had to be reduced due to a reassessment of the pace of repatriation;

Liberia: since the signing of the Akosombo Agreement on 12 September 1994, hostilities have regrettably increased, particularly in the north-eastern areas, forcing all United Nations and other humanitarian agencies to suspend the relief operation for returnees. As a consequence, both the 1994 and the 1995 budgetary requirements have been reduced. While no large-scale organized repatriation is anticipated during the first quarter of 1995, UNHCR will continue to assist spontaneous returnees. Depending on progress in the peace process, requirements may need to be revised at a later stage.

Mozambique: estimated requirements for 1995 have been reduced particularly because the number of returnees requiring transportation assistance is now much lower than had originally been foreseen. Cost estimates for logistics and reception facilities have thus been reduced accordingly.

(Note: Statistical and financial tables not included in this online version. See your nearest UN Depository Library.)

Annex V Major Increases/Decreases for the 1995 (revised) General Programmes (to be met through transfers between appropriations and allocations from the Programme Reserve)

AFRICA

Benin: decrease of $ 1.5 million due to a reduction in the number of beneficiaries from 150,000 to 45,000 in view of planned repatriation to Togo.

Liberia: increase of $ 0.7 million to meet the assistance needs of refugees from Sierra Leone who have not been able to return to their country.

Senegal: increase of $ 0.9 million to implement self-help activities for refugees from Mauritania.

Nigeria: increase of $ 0.6 million. Since the number of beneficiaries is below 5,000, UNHCR, under the terms of the UNHCR/WFP Memorandum of Understanding, must procure food previously supplied by WFP.

Togo: increase of $ 0.5 million due to an influx of refugees from Ghana.

Malawi: decrease of $ 5.7 million due to the higher than expected rate of repatriation and expected exchange rate gains. The planning figure for the remaining caseload has thus been reduced from 200,000 to 100,000 persons. This has also led to the earlier than planned discontinuation of a number of posts.

South Africa: increase of $ 0.7 million due to the Office in Johannesburg undertaking regional responsibilities for other countries in southern Africa.

Burundi: decrease of $ 0.8 million since all activities will be implemented under Special Programmes during 1995.

Rwanda: decrease of $ 0.5 million since all activities will be implemented under Special Programmes during 1995.

United Republic of Tanzania: decrease of $ 4.3 million since assistance to Burundi refugees will be covered under Special Programmes in 1995. There are also some expected savings under the local settlement project in view of the accelerated repatriation to Mozambique.

Uganda: increase of $ 3.4 million due to an appreciation in the local currency, an increase in the caseload and the need to develop a new site at Ikafe.

ASIA

Bangladesh: decrease of $ 1.6 million due to the accelerated rate of repatriation to Myanmar

Hong Kong: increase of $ 0.9 million due to lower than expected rates of voluntary repatriation during 1994.

Japan: increase of $ 0.7 million due to expanded public information and fund raising activities.

Thailand: decrease of $ 1.2 million due to accelerated voluntary repatriation to Laos. The beneficiary figure has been reduced from 16,700 to 15,000.

EUROPE

Austria: increase of $ 0.5 million due to expected exchange rate losses and the inclusion of a study on refugee women which had initially not been foreseen.

France: increase of $ 0.6 million on account of costs associated with family reunification.

Germany: increase of $ 0.7 million due to exchange rate losses and the opening of an Office in Berlin.

Turkey: decrease of $ 1.0 million due to a 25 per cent reduction in the caseload.

AMERICAS AND THE CARIBBEAN

Brazil: increase of $ 0.6 million due to higher rate of arrivals; the beneficiary figure has been increased from 3,000 to 3,750.

SOUTH WEST ASIA, NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (SWANAME)

Algeria: decrease of $ 1.0 million since the planned level of assistance to the Tuareg and Maure populations has been reduced to that of the 1994 assistance programme due to the beneficiaries not yet having been gathered in the "Centres de vie", thereby causing difficulties of access to these refugees. Assistance to urban refugees has also been reduced as fewer asylum seekers are approaching UNHCR in Algiers.

Middle East: increase of $ 1.0 million since the administrative requirements for Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were, in previous years, partially covered from residual Gulf Funds under Special Programmes. In view of the fact that these Gulf Funds have been exhausted during 1994, the administrative requirements have been incorporated in the 1995 General Programmes.

HEADQUARTERS

A number of budgetary adjustments are required as follows:

• increase of $ 4.0 million due to the initial 1995 budget for Headquarters having been based on an exchange rate of 1.43 Swiss Francs to the US dollar; this has been recalculated at a rate of 1.32 in the revised 1995 budget;

• increase of $ 1.3 million on account of costs directly related to the move to new headquarters accommodation, which were initially budgeted for 1994 and are being transferred to the 1995 budget, as well as costs relating from a delay in the move.

Annex VI Major Increases for the 1995 (revised) General Programmes (in thousands of US dollars)

AFRICA

Burkina Faso: the influx of some 30,000 Tuaregs from Mali and Niger since August 1994 required the creation of a care and maintenance programme covering all sectors of assistance. While WFP is providing basic food commodities, UNHCR is focusing on life-sustaining activities in the sectors of health, shelter, water and domestic needs, and on reinforcing the operational capacity of implementing partners. Following an assessment mission by a UNHCR technical team, further needs have been identified which may require additional adjustments to the present budget. In 1994, assistance was provided through an allocation from the Emergency Fund, and the proposed budget for 1995 is now being included under General Programmes. A UNHCR Liaison Office in Ouagadougou and a Field Office in Dori have been established, and activities carried out previously by UNDP on behalf of UNHCR have been taken over by the Liaison Office.

Central African Republic: an increase is required under the care and maintenance programme for Sudanese refugees as a result of a review of the costs of infrastructural development, domestic needs and agricultural production with the aim of promoting increased refugee self-sufficiency.

Côte d'Ivoire: the influx of a further 110,000 Liberian refugees since September 1994, and the consequent impossibility of proceeding with the planned repatriation of the existing caseload, requires a substantial increase in the care and maintenance assistance programme under all sectors to meet the needs of the expanded caseload. The planning figure for the number of beneficiaries has thus increased from 245,000 to 367,300. Among the new arrivals there were many children and vulnerable groups who arrived in Côte d'Ivoire in an extremely poor state of health, and for whom special health and social services have to be provided. In order to deal with the influx, a Field Office has been opened in Grabo and several new posts have been established in the existing offices in Abidjan, Danané and Tabou.

Adjusted Revised Proposed

Initial Increase

Approp.

706.0 1,206.0 500.0

1,063.8 1,525.1 461.3

3,530.7 7,530.7 4,000.0

Guinea: delays in planned repatriation to Liberia and the extremely poor living conditions of the refugees in Guinea, combined with the difficult conditions of access to the sites require an improved and expanded care and maintenance assistance programme in all life sustaining sectors. Given the poor nutritional condition of the beneficiaries and WFP's decision to discontinue food assistance to some 120,000 refugees, additional funds are required for the support of nutritional centres, and agricultural and income generating activities. In addition, further support is required for activities enhancing the capacity of women heads of household to sustain their families.

Uganda: budgetary increases are required due an appreciation in the local currency and an increase in the number of beneficiaries of the local settlement project from 110,000 to 170,000. Prospects for repatriation to the Sudan are poor for the time being, and there is thus a need to develop the infrastructure and basic services in newly established agricultural settlements, particularly in Ikafe.

Kenya: the appreciation in the value of the Kenyan Shilling and the need to transfer refugees from the coastal camps to Dadaab requires increased funding for infrastructural development to accommodate an additional 40,000 beneficiaries. Furthermore, the project for women victims of violence will be absorbed under General Programmes as from mid-1995.

Adjusted Revised Proposed

Initial Increase

Approp.

8,901.2 12,600.0 3,698.8

1,658.6 2,374.1 715.5

5,097.6 6,641.5 1,543.9

SWANAME

Iran (Islamic Republic of): it was initially expected that some 500,000 persons would repatriate to Afghanistan during 1994, but this planning figure was later reduced to 300,000. Due to the worsening security situation inside Afghanistan, only 120,000 Afghans have repatriated with UNHCR assistance. The planned reduction in the 1995 local settlement allocation can therefore not be sustained. Furthermore, another 400,000 Afghan refugees holding temporary ID cards have been registered by the Government and benefit from various Government services and facilities. The total Afghan refugee population thus stands at 1.7 million persons, of whom some 500,000 are currently expected to repatriate in 1995. As regards the Iraqi refugees, the influx from the marshlands in the south, which started in June 1993, still continues and is expected to increase in 1995; assistance to this group will have to be enhanced during 1995. The Government has also started to gradually withdraw health and education subsidies which has affected the majority of the urban Afghan refugees. Under these circumstances, UNHCR has had to intervene to partially complement the assistance programme, which the Government finds more difficult to maintain at its current level. Furthermore, given the prevailing high rate of unemployment, the Government is planning to prohibit the employment of Afghan refugees, which may require additional budgetary increases during 1995.

Mauritania: the initial 1995 care and maintenance programme was based on 60,000 beneficiaries. However, by the end of October 1994, the assisted population had already increased to some 77,500 persons. In view of the high rate of arrivals and the unstable situation in northern Mali, the new planning figure for 1995 is 90,000 persons. Additional UNHCR posts and equipment have also been necessary to cope with the expanded caseload.

Adjusted Revised Proposed

Initial Increase

Approp.

4,458.1 6,458.1 2,000.0

485.3 885.3 400.0

TOTAL PROPOSED INCREASE 13,319.5

Annex IX Draft Decision on the 1995 General Programmes Target

The Executive Committee,

Having reviewed the information contained in the Overall Programme and Funding Projections for 1994 and 1995 and Revised 1995 General Programmes Target (EC/SC.2/1995/CRP.6),

Having taken note of the oral report on the work of the Sub-Committee on Administrative and Financial Matters at its meeting on 16 January 1995,

Noting the increased requirements in a number of refugee situations, largely in Africa and the Middle East,

Recalling the need for UNHCR to respond to these situations in an expeditious and well programmed manner,

Approves an increase in the 1995 General Programmes target from $415,413,000, as approved by the forty-fifth session of the Executive Committee in October 1994, to a revised level of $428,732,500.