UNHCR warns Lake Chad Basin at tipping point as violence and displacement surge

GENEVA – UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is alarmed that escalating violence across the Lake Chad Basin is driving a sharp increase in forced displacement and insecurity, threatening to reverse recent fragile stabilization across the region.

Across the Lake Chad Basin, incorporating swathes of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, more than 3.5 million people are forcibly displaced, while 8.2 million require humanitarian assistance. The security situation has recently deteriorated sharply, with recorded incidents rising by 80 per cent between January 2024 and April 2026.

Between September 2025 and May 2026 alone, nearly 1,800 security incidents and more than 5,700 fatalities were recorded across the Basin. These incidents include attacks on civilians, killings, kidnappings, explosions, clashes between armed actors and raids on villages.

Borno State in northeast Nigeria remains the epicentre of the crisis. Repeated attacks by non-state armed groups, military operations and insecurity along roads and displacement routes are uprooting families and severely limiting humanitarian access. The ripple effects extend beyond the northeast, as displacement, insecurity and competition over scarce resources increasingly spill into other regions, including the northwest and the so-called middle belt, deepening fragilities. Since January 2026, more than 77,500 people have been displaced across the four countries, including over 16,000 refugees who fled attacks in northeast Nigeria and recently crossed into Niger’s Diffa region, where UNHCR and partners are helping identify urgent needs, register new arrivals, monitor protection risks and provide life-saving assistance.

Violence is increasingly having cross-border consequences, with attacks in one country rapidly triggering displacement in another. In Cameroon’s Far North, persistent attacks, abductions and village-level violence continue to drive chronic insecurity and new displacement. In Chad’s Lac Province, recurrent attacks and military operations have displaced some 60,000 people; a state of emergency was declared in May following an attack on military installations. Displaced people and returnees are now particularly exposed in areas with limited protection services and few safe options to move.

Civilians are bearing the brunt of the crisis. Recent protection monitoring across affected areas of the Lake Chad Basin shows that one in five households report that they no longer feel safe in their own community, reflecting the extent to which insecurity prevails.

Women and girls face rising risks of violence, while specialized services remain critically under-resourced. The number of people who know survivors of violence has reportedly increased to 27 per cent so far in 2026, from 19 per cent in 2025, indicating a worsening protection environment amid significant underreporting, as survivors rely on strained family and community support networks.

Children are especially exposed. Around half of the children in the most affected areas are out of school, rising to more than 78 per cent in Chad’s Lac Province. Regular protection monitoring shows that one in four people report the presence of separated or unaccompanied children in their communities, rising to one in three in Cameroon’s Far North. Single-parent households, older people and those with disabilities also face heightened risks as repeated displacement erodes already limited support networks.

Local and national authorities across the region continue to play a vital role in keeping asylum space open and supporting communities under pressure. UNHCR is working with them across all four countries to assist people fleeing violence, monitor risks, support new arrivals and ensure families can access documentation, assistance, and, where conditions allow, pathways to return, reintegration and recovery.

However, the response is struggling to keep pace with the scale of the needs. UNHCR and partners urgently need $29 million through December 2026 to sustain operations, maintain critical protection and assistance in high-risk areas, and support government-led regional stabilization efforts.

Without timely and flexible support, protection gaps will widen, displacement will continue to spread across borders, and the risk of a more entrenched regional crisis will increase. The trajectory remains deeply concerning, but it is still reversible with sustained support now.

For more information, please contact:

• In Dakar (regional), Fidelia Bohissou, [email protected], +221 77 569 91 60
• In Geneva, Eujin Byun, [email protected], +41 79 747 87 19