UNHCR warns regional conflicts could drive increased returns to Afghanistan

ISLAM QALA (HERAT) – UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, today warned that the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and worsening protection environment in the region could drive increased returns under adverse conditions of Afghans from neighbouring countries.

Already this year, around 110,000 Afghans have returned from Iran, with roughly 1,700 each day since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. We remain concerned that developments in the region could trigger larger movements in the coming weeks.

Returns to Afghanistan have already been exceptionally high. Over 5 million Afghans returned from neighbouring countries over the past two years – almost 1.9 million from Iran in 2025 alone.

At present, the situation at the border is deceptively calm. Returns are orderly but freighted with tension and apprehension. People I spoke with today reported being directly affected by the bombings and no longer feeling safe, while others said rising prices and economic pressures have made it increasingly difficult for them to survive.

Many Afghan families are now facing cycles of displacement – first forced to flee Afghanistan, later displaced again inside Iran due to conflict, and now returning once more to Afghanistan. And upon return in Afghanistan, the triply displaced enter a spiral of precarity and uncertainty.

Together with humanitarian colleagues, including UNICEF here with me today, we are equipped and further increasing our capacity to respond along the border and inside Afghanistan if arrivals increase.

Last year alone, in collaboration with partners, UNHCR assisted more than 2 million Afghans in need across Afghanistan, through protection services, financial assistance and support at border crossing points. If returns occur again on such a scale, UNHCR has the infrastructure and the seasoned personnel to respond. What we lack is sustained, generous financial support.

While attention today is focused on the Iran border, the situation at the Pakistan border also remains critical. More than 160,000 Afghans have returned from Pakistan already this year. Although returns have stabilised in recent weeks, the main crossing point at Torkham remains closed due to tensions, and movements could increase sharply once the border reopens.

UNHCR continues to stress the importance of maintaining protection space for Afghans in neighbouring countries. Any returns must be voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable, and no one in need of international protection should be forced to return to a place where their rights or freedoms may be at risk.

Given the scale of returns and the financial constraints facing humanitarian operations, additional support will be needed if arrivals increase. Timely international support is essential to ensure UNHCR and its partners can continue protecting and assisting refugees and returnees across the region, while also supporting the communities that host them.

For more information, please contact:

• In Kabul, Charlie Goodlake: [email protected], +44 7810 260093
• In Bangkok, Mariko Hall: [email protected], +66 63 003 2028
• In Geneva, Babar Baloch: [email protected], +41 79 513 95 49