Half of those registered as refugees or asylum-seekers in Eastern and Southern Africa remain in their country of asylum for almost 16 years. The estimate comes from data recorded in UNHCR’s registration system and is based on cases recorded during the last 25 years in Eastern and Southern Africa. At the end of 2025, 6.4 million refugees and asylum-seekers were recorded in the registration system. The analysis follows each person from the first day of registration in the system until their case closes, whether through a durable solution like repatriation or resettlement to a third country, other changes in legal status, death, or an administrative reason. Often these changes are only identified during verification exercises or reviews of registration data quality.

As shown in figure 1, movement out of the asylum system is slow and becomes slower with time. After one year, 96 per cent of registered individuals remain registered as refugees or asylum-seekers, which falls to 85 per cent after three years, 76 per cent after five years, and 60 per cent after ten years. The median is not crossed until almost the 16th year. Almost two in five people remained registered (39 per cent) after 20 years.

Most de-registering of refugees and asylum-seekers occurs in the first five years of displacement, followed by a slower, steady decline over the next 15 years. The estimates for the first 15 years rest on millions of records of refugees and asylum-seekers. By contrast, estimates beyond 20 years are derived from a smaller subset of records, where the refugees and asylum-seekers have been in the system long enough to be observed. Given these factors, these longer-term estimates are best considered as only indicative rather than precise.

The aggregate data hides sharp differences across age, sex and family size (see figure 2). For example, a child registered before age five spends a median of 18 years in asylum, the longest period of any refugee and asylum-seeking age cohorts. For children that have been displaced, or born into displacement, the practical implication is that their formative years are spent almost entirely within the asylum system. However, the duration of asylum falls for each successive age cohort to just under 11 years for people aged 60 and above. For older age cohorts, the shorter asylum duration is due to a range of factors, including a change in legal status, an administrative reason, or death.

Family size produces an even wider gap in displacement durations. Single person cases exit living in asylum in a median of just under six years; families of two to four in just under 10 years; while for families of five or more, it takes nearly 19 years. The size of the gap is striking. This may reflect the greater practical difficulty of assisting larger households through solution pathways; single individuals are often more mobile.

Women also remain in asylum significantly longer than men. The gap between the female median (nearly 17 years) and the male median (just over 14 years) is smaller than by age or family size, but is statistically significant.

The median duration also varies greatly depending on the nationality of the refugees and asylum-seekers and in which country they are hosted, as shown in figure 3 above. Somalis in Eritrea spend a median duration of nearly a decade, while for nationals of Mozambique in Malawi or Angolans in Namibia, the time spent in displacement is much shorter. The differences reflect the practical realities in countries of origin, including whether there is lasting peace and stability, adequate basic services and employment opportunities. The long durations that many refugees and asylum-seekers spend in their host countries also reflects the generosity of many countries in the region and their solidarity with forcibly displaced people.

What is clear from the analysis is that asylum in this region is a long-term condition rather than a short-term legal status. Millions of refugees today find themselves living in asylum for nearly a generation or more. Education systems serving refugee children must plan for a population that will pass through primary, secondary, and tertiary stages within asylum. Documentation, freedom of movement, and the right to work need to be guaranteed beyond the emergency phase, because the emergency phase is not where refugees and asylum-seekers spend most of their time in displacement.

The long-standing evidence that women and children are the most impacted cohorts at the beginning of a displacement emergency has always been clear. What this data story shows is how that impact, can last for a generation or more, laying a foundation for multi-generational dependency on aid. Solutions cannot depend on short-term assistance or limited third-country pathways. They require systematic investment in inclusion, documentation, education, work, social protection and area-based development approaches that allow refugees and asylum-seekers to rebuild their lives, together with the communities that host them.

See also the summary of protracted refugees situations in key facts for countries hosting the world's refugees.

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